Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
